Arsenal vs Coventry City

The thesis — The Curator

Arsenal are priced as a heavy favourite, but the handicap is already deep. The cleaner small test position is Over 3.0 because it keeps push protection if the match lands exactly three goals. Arsenal should control territory and create sustained pressure; if Coventry concede first and need to chase, the game can move toward 3-1 or 4-0. The risk is a controlled Arsenal win without enough tempo, so this remains a low-confidence 0.25u pick.